Italians have mozzarella, the French enjoy baguettes, Nigerians have jollof rice, and Americans have burgers and fries—and we like them cheap. Ever since the McDonald brothers first launched their vision of fast burgers at 15 cents a pop in 1948, inexpensive beef has become an American touchstone, practically a birthright along with voting and the high school prom.

These days, that’s an entitlement drifting out of reach for many Americans. In the second quarter of 2024, the average price of a fast-food restaurant burger was $8.41, up 16% from five years ago, according to food consultant Technomic’s Ignite Menu data. Even at McDonald’s, the average price of a Big Mac (no fries, no drink, just the sandwich) in June was $5.29, a 21% increase from 2019. Burgers have gotten expensive enough that low-income consumers have been coming in less frequently, driving the chain’s first sales drop in four years, it said in its last quarter earnings.

The Golden Arches has responded with deals—a value meal here, a buy-one-get-one there—and it seems to be getting traction. Other fast-food chains have followed, too. But to think the value wars are a sign that cheap burgers are coming for all is to misread what’s happening not to fast food, but to beef. The average retail price per pound for ground beef in US cities in August was $5.58 per pound, a record high reflecting the US cattle herd’s historically low numbers. The herd has been shrinking since its most recent peak in 2019, hitting a 73-year low in January.

Most of us remember 2020 for the pandemic, but ranchers will also remember it for the severe drought. When pasture for herds to graze grows harder to come by, ranchers send animals to slaughter without replacing them, shrinking herds and sending prices up. This year’s rainfall has been better, but parts of the country are still not out of the woods. Even as the costs of feed for cattle has declined, higher interest rates and operating expenses have meant that it’s still too pricey for most ranchers to get back to growing their herds, or “rebuilding” them, in industry parlance. So the number of cattle continues to fall, and the price of beef will continue to rise.

The size of the cattle herd—and beef prices—is cyclical, dependent on both market conditions and weather. First, prices have to get high enough for a producer to decide to increase his herd. Then there’s the cow’s biology, which makes for an achingly long cycle: The producer has to hold back some heifers (or breeding cows) rather than send them to slaughter. Once impregnated, cows don’t give birth for another nine months. The calves need at least a few months with their mothers and are then fed on the farm. Finally they’re sold to a feedlot, where they could remain for up to 300 days, depending on how quickly they gain weight. By the time the cow is slaughtered, it’s 30 to 42 months old. (Chickens, by contrast, are slaughtered before they reach 2 months.) Because of this lengthy process, it takes about five years for the cycle to go from its low point to its high point.

Despite the record high prices, nobody is certain the rebuild is coming. Signals from the major meat packers, which buy the cows at the feedlot stage, are mixed: Meat giant Tyson Foods said in its August earnings call that “data doesn’t support” a herd rebuilt yet, but less than two weeks later, rival beef giant JBS SA said in its earnings call that it was seeing some positive signs, with the number of young, female cows sent to slaughter down about 15%, meaning more are being held back to reproduce. Even so, JBS’s prediction for that herd-size rebound—for new cows to be ready for slaughter—isn’t until 2026. All that translates into beef prices rising higher before they start to fall, says Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University....