I’ve touched on some of the logistical difficulties Russia has experienced in its Ukrainian invasion. But this video goes into more detail about how Russia built up logistical support for the invasion, the importance of its rail systems, and how it hasn’t been able to keep up post-invasion.

[quote]Some takeaways:

1. Ukrainian forces destroyed all rail links between the two countries.

2. Russian forces are relying on analog, unsecured radio communications rather than scrambled digital channels, and Ukrainian forces are listening in and jamming.

3. Poor logistics also helped Soviet forces lose in Afghanistan.

4. Russia has 30,000 strong military rail organization.

5. “Russia doesn’t have enough trucks.” They can’t operate effectively more than 90 miles from supply dumps.

6. A large percentage of truck transport was dedicated to rocket resupply, not fuel and food.

7. Russia only had 3-5 days of supplies when they invaded. When those ran out, they were screwed.

8. Russia’s military works on a “push” logistic system rather than a “pull” system used by the U.S. military, mean it’s not very flexible.

9. Russia has the capability to set up the infrastructure for a longer war, but it’s going to take time.

10. Russia’s failure to quickly achieve it’s objectives has seen it resort to more desperate and indiscriminate tactics.

And here’s a related Twitter thread that touches on rail network logistic issues:

Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine will be a ‘total failure’ comparable to the collapse of Nazi Germany, a report by a so-called FSB analyst has claimed.

The over 2,000-word report added that Russia’s forces have ‘no options to victory, only defeat’ as they continue to meet strong Ukrainian resistance, that experts believe has surprised many in Moscow including the president himself.

It said that the number of Russians killed in Ukraine could already be over 10,000 – a figure similar to that reported by Kyiv officials – and far more than the 498 dead soldiers officially acknowledged by the Kremlin.

The whistleblower also claimed the FSB – Russia’s successor to the Soviet Union’s feared KGB – was being blamed for the failure of Moscow’s forces to make significant progress into Ukraine, despite being given no advanced warning of the invasion.

The report also said Russia’s government has lost contact with a number of its divisions that have been sent into Ukraine, meaning they had no accurate death toll.

Russian human rights activist and operator of the anti-corruption website Gulagu.net Vladimir Osechkin published the report on Facebook last week.

Christo Grozev, an expert on Russia’s security services who works for investigative journalism group Bellingcat, said he has shown the report two current or former FSB contacts who told him they had ‘no doubt it was written by a colleague’.

Writing on Twitter, Grozev said that while his contacts did not necessarily agree with all the assertions in the report, they were confident in its origin.

Giving hope to the people of Ukraine in the face of devastating attacks by Russian forces, the report said that Putin’s chances of victory in Ukraine are non-existent.

‘By and large, [Russia] has no way out. It’s just that there is no option for a possible victory, and defeat is everything,’ the report said.

It compared Russia’s mistakes to those made by Nazi Germany at the end of the Second World War, and said that Moscow’s ‘starting position’ was akin to ‘Germany in 1943-44’ – when Hitler’s chances of victory were collapsing on two fronts.

The whistleblower claimed that FSB officers have been ordered to assess the effects Western sanctions are having on Russia. The ruble has all-but collapsed and Russia has become an international pariah.

But despite the very real economic devastation, the report said officers were told that it was a hypothetical box-ticking exercise.

‘You have to write the analysis in a way that makes Russia the victor… otherwise you get questioned for not doing good work,’ the report says. ‘Suddenly it happens and everything comes down to your completely groundless analysis.’

The letter, published in the early hours of Friday morning, also says that Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov – who is usually a staunch ally of Putin’s – is furious with Moscow after his ‘kill squad’ sent to assassinate Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky was instead destroyed by Ukrainian troops.

Zelensky is said to be Putin’s No. 1 target, but even if the Russian president was successful in killing his Ukrainian counterpart, the report says that Moscow would still be unable to occupy Ukraine.

‘Even with minimum resistance from the Ukrainians we’d need over 500,000 people, not including supply and logistics workers,’ the author claims.

The author also addressed the likelihood of Putin launching a nuclear strike against the West, saying it was a possibility.

They also wrote that Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the SVR, was trying to find evidence that Ukraine had built nuclear weapons to justify a pre-emptive strike.

‘Is there a possibility of a local nuclear strike? Yes. Not for military purposes (it will not give anything – this is a defense breakthrough weapon), but with the aim of intimidating others,’ they wrote.

‘At the same time, the soil is being prepared to turn everything to Ukraine – Naryshkin and his SVR are now digging the earth to prove that they secretly created nuclear weapons there.’

But despite saying there was a possibility of such a horrific event, the author added: ‘From the cynical, I will only add that I do not believe that VV Putin will press the red button to destroy the whole world.

‘Firstly, there is more than one person making a decision, at least someone will jump off. And there are a lot of people there – there is no ‘one-man red button,’ they wrote.

‘Secondly, there are some doubts that everything is functioning [in Russia’s nuclear deterrent],’ they added, continuing: ‘Thirdly, and this is the most vile and sad thing, I personally do not believe in the readiness to sacrifice oneself of a person who does not let the members of the Federation Council, but his closest representatives and ministers, come close to him.

‘For fear of the coronavirus or an attack, it doesn’t matter. If you are afraid to let the most trusted people near you, then how will you dare to destroy yourself and your loved ones.’

Amid concerns that Russia could put some of Ukraine’s cities such as the capital of Kyiv under siege, the author of the report said this was unlikely.

‘Keep under siege? According to the experience of military conflicts in the same Europe in recent decades (Serbia is the largest testing ground here), cities can be under siege for years, and even function,’ they wrote.

‘Humanitarian convoys from Europe [will be there in a] matter of time,’ they added.

Kremlin officials are ‘privately denouncing’ Vladimir Putin’s ‘clusterf**k’ invasion as US officials warned that the isolated Russian despot could lash out in anger at Ukraine’s fierce resistance by using small nuclear weapons on some of its cities.

Russian journalist Farida Rustamova, who was well-connected in government circles before fleeing the country as the Kremlin launched a sweeping crackdown on dissent, has claimed that officials in Moscow never believed that Putin would go to war.
They are now allegedly making ‘apocalyptic’ forecasts about the weeks and months ahead as fighting grinds on and punitive sanctions bite.

When asked how Russian politicians were reacting to the crisis, one source told Rustamova: ‘They’re carefully enunciating the word clusterf**k. No one is rejoicing. Many understand that this is a mistake, but in the course of doing their duty they come up with explanations in order to somehow come to terms with it.’

Kyiv estimates that 12,000 Russians have now died fighting and while that number cannot be verified, casualties are almost certainly higher than Putin bargained for when he gave the order to attack 13 days ago. Captured soldiers have complained of a lack of food, fuel, and overall battle plan – with conditions set to get worse in the coming days.

A pronounced cold snap will see temperatures drop to -10C overnight in the middle of the week around Kyiv and Kharkiv – down to -20C when wind chill is taken into account – with many Russian soldiers stuck outdoors in a 40-mile column of stalled vehicles near the Ukrainian capital.

US intelligence chiefs on Tuesday branded Putin an ‘angry’, isolated leader grappling for global clout, frustrated about how his Ukraine invasion has not gone to plan, and lobbing provocative nuclear threats at the West. Some have even privately expressed concern that, in a worst-case scenario, he might order deployment of mini-nukes on a city.

CIA Director William Burns told US lawmakers that Putin is now likely to ‘double down and try to grind down the Ukrainian military with no regard for civilian casualties’. At a congressional hearing on global threats, he said the despot has been ‘stewing in a combustible combination of grievance and ambition for many years’ and regarded the invasion of Ukraine a matter of ‘deep personal conviction’ for Putin.

‘I think Putin is angry and frustrated right now. He’s likely to double down and try to grind down the Ukrainian military with no regard for civilian casualties,’ Burns said....

Russia has asked China for military aid to support its invasion of Ukraine, according to US officials. US officials told the Financial Times that it is suspected Russia may be running out of weaponry as the war enters its third week.

This news comes as Jake Sullivan, US national security advisor, plans to meet in Rome for talks on Monday with Yang Jiechi, China's top foreign policy official.

Prior to departing for Italy over the weekend, Sullivan warned China not to "bail out" Russia by helping Moscow get around current sanctions that the US and its allies have imposed on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"We will ensure that neither China, nor anyone else, can compensate Russia for these losses," Sullivan told NBC on Sunday. "In terms of the specific means of doing that, again, I’m not going to lay all of that out in public, but we will communicate that privately to China, as we have already done and will continue to do."

Lately, there has been some level of concern regarding China's growing relationship with Russia. Despite being officially "neutral" on the Ukraine invasion, Beijing-Moscow jointly said their relationship has "no limits."

Chinese officials also reportedly told senior Russian officials in early February to hold off on invading Ukraine until after the conclusion of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, which concluded on Feb. 20.

The war in Ukraine is likely to be over by early May when Russia runs out of resources to attack its neighbour, Oleksiy Arestovich, an adviser to the Ukrainian president's chief of staff, said late on Monday.

Talks between Kyiv and Moscow - in which Arestovich is not personally involved - have so far produced very few results other than several humanitarian corridors out of besieged Ukrainian cities.

In a video published by several Ukrainian media, Arestovich said the exact timing would depend on how much resources the Kremlin was willing to commit to the campaign.

"I think that no later than in May, early May, we should have a peace agreement, maybe much earlier, we will see, I am talking about the latest possible dates," Arestovich said.

"We are at a fork in the road now: there will either be a peace deal struck very quickly, within a week or two, with troop withdrawal and everything, or there will be an attempt to scrape together some, say, Syrians for a round two and, when we grind them too, an agreement by mid-April or late April."

A "completely crazy" scenario could also involve Russia sending fresh conscripts after a month of training, he said.

Still, even once peace is agreed, small tactical clashes could remain possible for a year, according to Arestovich, although Ukraine insists on the complete removal of Russian troops from its territory.

The war in Ukraine began on Feb. 24 when Russian President Vladimir Putin launched what he called a "special military operation," the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two. read more

Airforce, you left out the headline in the page you linked to: "War could be over by May, says Ukrainian presidential adviser" You can't believe the Ukrainians. That is just wishful thinking....

Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges told Fox News on Monday that he believes Russian military forces are just days away from not being able to continue to their war against Ukraine.

“The Russians went after his [Fmr. Amb. to NATO Kurt Volker’s] training center in Yavoriv, outside the city of Lviv, partly to demonstrate that they could reach the lines of communication that bring supplies and support from Poland into Ukraine,” he said. “But also I think to maybe go after the logistics buildup that’s happening there. I don’t think we should overreact to this.”

“The Russians, I think, are about ten days away from what is called the culminating point, when they just no longer have the ammunition nor the manpower to keep up their assault,” he said. “I think we keep pouring it on, and the Russians culminate.”

Hodges’ remarks come after Russian military forces have faced significantly stiffer resistance from Ukrainian forces. Both sides have seen thousands of casualties thus far in the war and numerous cities have experienced severe damage.

As The Daily Wire previous reported, some have warned that the war could escalate.

A retired Navy captain and former intelligence officer warned during an interview this week with Fox News that the war in Europe between Russia and Ukraine could quickly escalate into a much larger war if Russia conducts a false flag operation.

“I think there is still risk of more expansionism,” Steven Horrell told the network. “There’s a risk of something sparking an escalation, some sort of incident on the high seas, or in international airspace, or a fabricated incident for some sort of cross-border thing that could lead to further escalation.”

The remarks come after the war entered its third week following Russian President Vladimir Putin giving the order for the invasion late last month.

“I think Russia has for some time held the opinion that the West, the U.S. [and] NATO, have a very low tolerance for cost and for pain,” Horrell said. “And, conversely, that Russia has a much higher cost acceptance.”

He said that Russia has a strategy of “escalate to deescalate,” which could mean that the war is about to get significantly worse as Russia tries to gain leverage for a more favorable outcome.

“A ship in the Black Sea with a Kalibr land attack cruise missile could reach Berlin,” Horrell told Fox News. “If they viewed one of the European capitals as being a weakness in NATO, they could do that sort of escalation, non-nuclear, but they could strike outside the immediate theater of conflict and start hitting NATO targets.”

He said that Russia miscalculated its ability to take over Ukraine because “the decision-makers in the Kremlin truly believed some of their own press reports and expected a quick and hasty victory,” Horrell said. “There are no indications of more forces reinforcing the current force commitment from Russia to Ukraine. Frankly, I don’t know how many more cards in that regard there are to play.”

...Previously, “Berlin had not only taken a strong political stance against F-35 and sacked the former head of the Luftwaffe for publicly supporting its acquisition, but had also previously refused to engage with practical discussions of any kind around the operational delivery of the DCA [dual capable aircraft] mission,” he said. “This is a clear sign that all that has now changed.”

The news was cause for celebration for Lockheed Martin, as the F-35 has now won every fighter contest it had entered, with Germany previously standing alone as the sole holdout.

“We are proud of the confidence the German Federal Ministry of Defense and Luftwaffe officials have shown in choosing the F-35,” the company said in a statement. “Lockheed Martin values our strong partnership and history with the German Air Force and looks forward to continuing that partnership.”

...The Russian demands fall into two categories.

The first four demands are, according to Mr Kalin, not too difficult for Ukraine to meet.

Chief among them is an acceptance by Ukraine that it should be neutral and should not apply to join Nato. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has already conceded this.

There are other demands in this category which mostly seem to be face-saving elements for the Russian side.

Ukraine would have to undergo a disarmament process to ensure it wasn't a threat to Russia. There would have to be protection for the Russian language in Ukraine. And there is something called de-Nazification.

This is deeply offensive to Mr Zelensky, who is himself Jewish and some of whose relatives died in the Holocaust, but the Turkish side believes it will be easy enough for Mr Zelensky to accept. Perhaps it will be enough for Ukraine to condemn all forms of neo-Nazism and promise to clamp down on them.

The second category is where the difficulty will lie, and in his phone call, Mr Putin said that it would need face-to-face negotiations between him and President Zelensky before agreement could be reached on these points. Mr Zelensky has already said he's prepared to meet the Russian president and negotiate with him one-to-one.

Mr Kalin was much less specific about these issues, saying simply that they involved the status of Donbas, in eastern Ukraine, parts of which have already broken away from Ukraine and stressed their Russianness, and the status of Crimea.

Although Mr Kalin didn't go into detail, the assumption is that Russia will demand that the Ukrainian government should give up territory in eastern Ukraine. That will be deeply contentious.

The other assumption is that Russia will demand that Ukraine should formally accept that Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014, does indeed now belong to Russia. If this is the case, it will be a bitter pill for Ukraine to swallow. ...

Still, President Putin's demands are not as harsh as some people feared and they scarcely seem to be worth all the violence, bloodshed and destruction which Russia has visited on Ukraine.

Given his heavy-handed control over the Russian media, it shouldn't be too hard for him and his acolytes to present all this as a major victory....

What about Vladimir Putin himself? There have been suggestions that he is ill, or possibly even mentally unbalanced. Did Mr Kalin detect anything strange about him in the phone call? Not at all, he said. Mr Putin had apparently been clear and concise in everything he said.

Yet even if he does manage to present an agreement with Ukraine as a glorious victory over neo-Nazism, his position at home must be weakened.

More and more people will realise that he overreached himself badly, and stories of the soldiers who have been killed or captured are already spreading fast.