Intelligence Sources: China Will Try To Take Taiwan in Six Months – A takeover of the Republic of China (ROC) on the island of Taiwan by the Mainland People’s Republic of China (PRC) is increasingly being considered a question of “not if, but when.”

Beijing’s unrelenting program of harassment activities directed against the ROC has been described by Sir Alex Younger, the former Chief of the UK Secret Intelligence Service, as “a textbook on subversion, cyber and political harassment” or a case study for understanding the aspects of “grey zone” type warfare.

China’s Threat to Taiwan

While the situation with the ROC has unique aspects related to its long-running tensions with the Mainland, the grey zone-type harassment it faces is nearly identical to the actions taken by both the PRC and Russia against other nations in Europe and Asia. These include sabotaging undersea infrastructure like the internet and other communications cables, election interference, and digitalized disinformation.

On 4 March, the administration of US President Donald Trump imposed a set of tariffs on the PRC, which Washington billed as incentives for Beijing to return to what Washington defines as equitable and fair trade. This prompted the PRC ambassador to make the semi-ambiguous threat that his country was prepared for any “type of war” with the US.

China Could Invade Soon: Intel Sources

The ambassador’s statement has been interpreted as Beijing now deciding that the time may be ripe for a move against the ROC as the opening round in a direct conflict with the US.

Intelligence sources who have spoken to 19FortyFive about this story now state that they believe an attempt by China to do just that is no less than six months away.

The same intelligence sources elaborate further that the “six months from now” time frame is being prompted by the belief among the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) senior leadership that the US administration in Washington will either be unwilling or unable to prevent an invasion by the CCP and its military arm, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

Beijing’s Taiwan Options

A recent assessment of Beijing’s options to affect this takeover by Chuck DeVore, a retired US Army Lt. Col., and former California legislator, projects three possible scenarios: “a patient choke, a lightning grab, or full chaos.”

As DeVore projects, the first option would be a full-on blockade of the ROC. China’s navy (PLAN) would ring the island “like a steel noose, turning the Taiwan Strait into a kill zone. Of course, 90 percent of Taiwan’s food and all its natural gas come by ship. Snip that lifeline and the island will starve for months. No invasion, no blood-soaked beaches, just a slow strangulation.”

The second possibility would involve massive Chinese missile strikes devastating Taiwan’s defenses and overloading its Patriot and other missile defense systems. Beijing’s army of “patriotic hackers” would crash the ROC power grids and shut down the internet and phone networks. Simultaneously, 100,000 PLA troops would hit the island’s beaches.

Given the 12-hour time difference with Washington, this would all transpire, as DeVore writes, “before the US wakes up.” Beijing’s objective would, therefore, be to “seize [the capitol] Taipei in days and present the world with a done deal.”

The Doomsday Scenario

The third possibility is the nightmare, doomsday scenario.

In this variant, the PRC attempts to take the ROC and destroy the defense potential of the US and all of America’s regional allies.

Missile barrages would not only smash military sites on the ROC but also any US bases in Japan, Guam, and the Philippines. While this chaos is being created in Asia, Beijing’s 20,000 or more men of military age smuggled into the US under the protocols of President Joe Biden’s open border begin attacks in conjunction with Mexican cartels.

The US loses complete control of the southern border with shootouts at border crossing points and sabotage attacks inside of the border on the Texas side. Infrastructure is brought down by attacks on power grids.

As DeVore points out, this would be a modern-day version of what was directed in the infamous 1917 Zimmermann Telegram. Then, Imperial Germany “tried to sic Mexico on the US to distract it from World War I—even sending military advisors to Mexico. Britain cracked the code, and America declared war on Germany.”

For the PRC, this “unleashing unrestricted warfare splits US attention, buys invasion [of the ROC] time, and tests alliance resolve. But it’s a high-risk gamble, especially if caught before launch. Further, the US may gain by rallying worldwide outrage, reinforcing global leadership, and punishing China economically.”

What Will China Do?

It is not like the PRC is unprepared to execute one of the above options. In February, Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, declared that these regular movements of PLAN ships around Taiwan and harassment flights of PLAAF aircraft are “not exercises; they are rehearsals” for forced reunification of the island with the communist Mainland.

Within six months, we may know if one of these three options succeeds or fails.

DeVore’s conclusion: “America’s edge lies in vigilance, allies, and the will to slug it out if needed. China’s gamble? Picking the right play and hoping friction doesn’t lead to ruination.”